William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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TRUMP GAINS – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  He's now up five points in the Los Angeles Times tracker.  And...there's a spurt in GOP voter registration.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in registering voters in three battleground states and kept their razor-thin advantage in Iowa — encouraging news for Donald Trump eight weeks before Election Day.

Republicans added hundreds of thousands of voters to the rolls since 2012 in states including Florida and Arizona, and narrowed the gap in North Carolina, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. In Iowa, Republicans prevented Democrats from surpassing them, aided by a court ruling upholding a ban on voting by ex-felons, who often register as Democrats.

As Election Day approaches, voter registration drives are in full swing.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is staging registration rallies and appealing in particular to non-whites and young people, who are more likely to vote early — if they vote at all. Trump is relying mostly on a base of white voters, urging supporters to be vigilant for voter fraud and "rigging."

"The Clinton campaign cannot come close to our output," said Sean Spicer, the Republican National Committee's chief strategist, in a campaign memorandum Monday.

The latest registration numbers aren't an assurance of new voters for Trump. Some changes reflect those who have died and been removed from the list, while others are inactive, not having voted in recent elections. In Florida, newly registered Hispanics are turning against the Republican nominee, stung by his anti-immigrant rhetoric. And Democrats historically have done well in signing up new voters in the final stretch.

COMMENT:  On balance, a gain for Trump in what is turning out to be a very close race.  Trump is also improving considerably as a candidate.

But the main question mark, at least this week, is Hillary Clinton's health.  She may well get through her current crisis, but one more "event" during the election campaign and she may suffer unrecoverable polling losses.  That's what has Democrats worried.

September 14,  2016   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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